Computer peripheral and video hardware company Logitech (NASDAQ:LOGI) has declined in price precipitously over the past two years.
Going into 2023, LOGI share price trades at less than half of its previous highs. So, it it on sale? And is Logitech stock a buy now?
Financials: A Tale of Two Halves, Sales & Profits
In Q3, Logitech’s revenue dropped 12 percent year-over-year to $1.15 billion. Operating income saw a much larger drop, falling from $179 million in 2021 to $127 million in 2022.
Earnings for the quarter, however, beat analyst expectations. Logitech reported $0.77 per share in Q3, compared to a consensus estimate of $0.73.
Management accredited the falling sales and lower earnings to difficult macroeconomic conditions. One of the key culprits, according to the Q3 report, appears to have been an overly strong US dollar.
Adjusted for constant currency, for example, total sales dropped only 7 percent. Given that the US dollar is expected to remain strong in 2023, Logitech could continue to see headwinds arising from currency balances throughout the coming year.
Despite falling operating income, Logitech’s profitability metrics remain quite positive. Net margin currently stands at just under 10 percent, while return on equity remains at a healthy 25 percent.
These numbers point to strong execution by management and solid unit economics. Assuming conditions do not become persistently worse, it seems unlikely that Logitech will slip into negative earnings territory or lose appreciably more ground than it already has.
Over the coming year, projections are that Logitech’s earnings will improve by about 16 percent to $3.54 per share. The next several years, however, are not expected to be particularly strong growth years for the firm.
The company’s sales are forecast to remain largely flat over the next five years. During the same period, free cash flow per share could also contract significantly, though overall earnings are expected to remain fairly steady.
Analysts Are Split Over Logitech Fortunes
Analysts have a mixed view on Logitech over the coming 12 months, but sentiment generally leans positive. The consensus among analysts is $68, a 21.9 percent increase from the current price of $55.80.
It should be noted, however, that two analysts have rated the stock as a sell, and the lowest price target of $37.60 would represent a loss of more than 30 percent. As such, there’s at least a credible case to be made for Logitech carrying significant downside risk.
Logitech has several points in its favor in terms of valuation. In addition to carrying no long-term debt, the stock trades at a relatively reasonable multiple of 16.64 to expected earnings. The company generates $6.59 per show in cash flow, well above the average for its industry.
Logitech pays an annual dividend which could enhance its overall return. The most recent payout was $1 per share, a yield of 1.79 percent. Although this is relatively low, the firm’s comparatively low payout ratio of under 40 percent could give it room to raise its dividend going forward.
Over the coming three years, Logitech is projected to raise its dividend at a compounded rate of 7.73 percent annually.
What’s Anchoring Logitech From Making Progress?
Is Logitech a Good Buy?
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