So you’re looking at Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and wondering, “Is this thing still worth holding for the long haul?” Fair question. Dell isn’t the hottest name in tech right now. It’s not pushing flashy gadgets or launching space-bound robots. But that might be exactly why some investors are circling back to it.
Now before we go any further, this isn’t some speculative bet riding on buzzwords. We’re talking about a company that’s neck-deep in enterprise infrastructure, servers, storage, PCs, the kind of stuff that powers businesses quietly in the background. And even though the headlines often skip Dell in favor of more “exciting” stocks, something interesting is brewing under the surface.
Let’s unpack what’s happening in 2025 and where Dell may land by 2030.
Dell Pulls a Fast One on Wall Street
Let’s start with something that didn’t get enough attention.
In March 2025, Dell shocked analysts by delivering a blowout earnings report. The company’s Infrastructure Solutions Group — the division that handles servers and storage, posted its highest year-over-year growth in almost three years. And no, that’s not just a fluke. AI data centers are driving a fresh wave of demand for high-performance computing gear. And guess who makes the servers that go into those centers? Yep, Dell.
The stock jumped over 18% in a single day after that report. That kind of move is rare for a company Dell’s size. What made it pop? Management didn’t just beat expectations. They raised guidance across the board. It was the first time in over a year that analysts upgraded price targets for Dell across all 10 firms that cover the stock.
That’s not nothing.
Dell’s AI Pickaxe
Let’s get one thing straight. Dell isn’t building AI models like OpenAI or running massive data farms like Google. But it’s doing something arguably more profitable. It’s selling the gear to everyone else trying to get in on the AI race.
Dell now has over 50 certified hardware configurations for generative AI workloads. That number was just 14 a year ago. These configurations aren’t some cookie-cutter boxes either. They’re built in close partnership with NVIDIA and AMD. And yes, Dell is now one of the top 3 global vendors shipping servers optimized for large language model inference. That’s a mouthful, but here’s what it means: every time someone deploys a private GPT-like tool in-house, there’s a solid chance it’s running on Dell gear.
That’s the kind of thing that doesn’t just bump quarterly numbers, it builds a recurring revenue flywheel.
A PC Comeback Of Sorts
Dell’s consumer PC segment isn’t setting the world on fire. Shipments are flat, and management has been clear that they’re not banking on this side of the business for growth. But they’re leaning hard into commercial and education contracts, two areas that tend to lock in multi-year deals.
In April 2025, Dell announced a $1.2 billion education contract with the Texas Department of Education to supply custom Chromebooks and IT support across 1,000 school districts. It’s the largest education win in the company’s history. And while Chromebooks don’t carry fat margins, the support contracts absolutely do.
This part is easy to overlook, but it matters. These contracts create sticky relationships. Schools don’t switch vendors easily. And when you’re talking about thousands of institutions running on Dell hardware, you start seeing follow-on deals for servers, cloud integration, and security tools.
Buybacks and Signals From the Top
You want to know if management believes in the future of the company? Watch what they do, not what they say.
In May 2025, Dell’s board approved a fresh $5 billion stock buyback program. That’s on top of the $2.5 billion they finished repurchasing last quarter. This isn’t just a PR move. Dell insiders, including Michael Dell himself, bought more than $100 million worth of stock since January, according to SEC filings.
That’s not a coincidence. It’s conviction.
And if you’re thinking this is just an attempt to juice the stock price, think again. Dell is also paying down debt aggressively and hinted at a possible dividend hike later this year. The company hasn’t raised its payout since early 2023. A bump would send a strong message to income-focused investors.
So Where’s the Stock Going?
Alright, you’ve stuck with me this far, so let’s get to the good part.
As of May 2025, Dell trades around $132 per share. It’s already doubled off its 2023 lows, but it’s still trading at what many would call a discount. The stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio sits in the low teens. Compare that to peers in the enterprise tech space, many of which are pushing 20x or more.
Analysts at Bernstein, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies all raised their 12-month price targets to the $160–$170 range. But we’re not thinking short-term here.
Let’s roll this forward.
By 2030, Dell will be a dominant AI infrastructure vendor. Its enterprise contracts will make up the bulk of its revenue. The PC side will stay steady, but the real juice will come from hybrid cloud solutions and edge computing — two areas the company has doubled investment in during 2025.
Here’s where it gets interesting. If Dell maintains even a modest 7% annual earnings growth rate (and that’s conservative, given the current trajectory), and the market starts rewarding it with a 16x multiple, in line with enterprise peers, the stock climbs to $220–$240.
That’s over 70% upside from where it trades today. And that doesn’t even include dividends or buyback impact.
The Missed Memo
Look, Dell’s not a flashy story. But it’s a resilient one. And in a market that’s become obsessed with narrative over numbers, Dell might be one of the few big tech names delivering both.
One last thing. A March 2025 report from IDC showed Dell gaining enterprise server market share in 5 out of the last 6 quarters. No other U.S. vendor pulled that off. Not HPE. Not Cisco. Not Lenovo.
That’s a signal. And it’s one that most retail investors haven’t picked up on yet.
So where will Dell stock be in 5 years?
Barring some wild macro shock, it’s headed higher. Not because it’s chasing fads. But because it’s building the digital plumbing that every other tech company needs to survive. With buybacks, insider confidence, AI tailwinds, and enterprise wins stacking up, Dell’s next five years are shaping up to be a lot more interesting than most people think.
You don’t need Dell to triple to make money here. You just need it to keep doing what it’s already doing, execute quietly and crush expectations when no one’s looking.
But something tells me that five years from now, everyone will be.
The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.