Avi Gilburt is a financial commentator and trader who specializes in Elliott wave theory. He is the founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a forum and discussion site which boasts more than 3,500 members, as well as Fatrader.com, a website for research in fundamental analysis.
Mr. Gilburt began his career as a lawyer, receiving a JD cum laude from the St. John’s School of Law in New York and an LL.M. in taxation from the NYU School of Law. He worked as a partner and national director at a major national firm before entering the world of finance.
So how did Avi Gilburt transform from lawyer to Elliott Wave theory expert? Let’s back up a step or two and explain first…
What is Elliott Wave Theory?
Elliott Wave Theory is a form of technical analysis that was originally developed in the 1930s by Ralph Nelson Elliott, a U.S. accountant and author.
The theory was first popularized several decades later in the 1970s in the book Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior by Robert R. Prechter and A.J. Frost.
Billionaire investor and hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones praised the work of Prechter and Frost, saying that it “allows one to create incredibly favorable risk/reward opportunities. That is the same reason I attribute a lot of my own success to the Elliott wave approach.”
According to the Elliott wave theory, the market experiences a cyclical, repetitive pattern of “waves” that are perceptible both on shorter and longer timeframes. These waves are due to natural sequences of optimism and pessimism among investors, in an application of crowd psychology.
Specifically, each wave pattern can be broken down into five-wave and three-wave sub-patterns. In a five-wave pattern, waves 1, 3, and 5 are known as “motive” or “dominant” waves, in which the price of the asset moves either upwards or downwards, according to the larger trend.
Meanwhile, waves 2 and 4 are “corrective” waves that move against the larger trend. Each corrective wave can itself be broken down into a three-wave sub-pattern. Waves 1 and 3 of the sub-pattern are motive waves, and wave 2 is a corrective wave.
The Elliott wave theory offers an explanation for the “jagged” look to market price graphs, in which there can be many small movements beyond the larger trend.
According to the theory, the same wave patterns will be visible across many different timescales, from years to just hours. Elliott wave theory predicts that market prices are fractal in nature, exhibiting the same patterns and sequences at smaller and larger timescales.
Avi Gilburt Track Record
Mr. Gilburt claims to have successfully applied Elliott wave theory, together with his own analyses, to a variety of situations.
In July 2011, for example, Mr. Gilburt predicted that the USD would have a multi-year rally from its current position at 74 to an ideal target of 103.53. This target was reached in January 2017, when the DXY hit 103.82 before starting to pull back (as also predicted).
Another successful forecast was in 2015, when Mr. Gilburt predicted that the S&P 500 index would rally from 1800 to 2600 and become part of a “global melt-up.”
Despite many investors believing that the market would crash after Donald Trump’s election in 2016, Mr. Gilburt correctly predicted that the winner of the election was ultimately irrelevant for stock market trends.
Avi Gilburt Reviews
Mr. Gilburt currently helps thousands of readers on his websites ElliottWaveTrader.net and Fatrader.com. He has developed the concept of the “Fibonacci pinball,” a method for more in-depth analysis of market patterns using Fibonacci mathematics.
In his course “The Market Pinball Wizard,” Mr. Gilburt helps readers leverage Elliott wave theory and the Fibonacci pinball to make smarter market investments. The course currently has 62 reviews on Seeking Alpha with an average rating of 4.7 out of 5 stars.
One “Market Pinball Wizard” student compliments the user experience, writing: “Avi and his team guiding their members through the markets are nearly online 24/7 answering questions and treat members as friends. Every twist and turn of the market is analyzed and updated in nearly real time.”
Student Markus_Bussler says that Mr. Gilburt is “by far the best technical analyst I met in my 20-year investment career,” writing: “My high expectations have been exceeded. Whether it comes to metals or the S&P – his calls are accurate and his calls are correct most of the time. He will show you the market as it is and how it highly probably will act in the future.”
According to ElliottWaveTrader.net user JerryColorado: “I spent most of my free trial time going through all of the year’s analysis and webinars and comparing the projections to later market action. I was very impressed that this site maintains a huge amount of historical ‘calls,’ which speaks to transparency, and equally impressed with the results of the analysis. I feel fortunate to be a subscriber.”
Cote62, another ElliottWaveTrader.net user, raves: “Your work has been great – I am up 89 percent this year. If I wasn’t following you I would be losing money, as I would have been following the crowd.”
Of course nobody can be perfect every time, and so no doubt there will be times when Avi Gilburt’s predictions aren’t perfect and some followers are left disappointed. But even the great Warren Buffett has had his fair share of mishaps from IBM [NYSE: IBM] to missing out on buying Alphabet [NASDAQ: GOOG], so if the greatest investor of the 20th century has fallen short from time to time, it’s perhaps best to give Avi his due credit based on his track record.