Will MongoDB Stock Recover?

While AI has dominated more headlines over the past year or so, cloud services have changed the way software is delivered and reduced the need for companies to purchase costly onsite infrastructure.

Businesses still require a central solution to house and organize the massive amounts of data they need to function and so, to address that demand, database provider MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB) developed its Atlas platform.

After the company’s late 2017 IPO, investor enthusiasm drove MongoDB up by roughly 1,750% to $566 per share at its peak in 2021 but the stock hasn’t soared to those heights in years.

MongoDB appeared to be poised to rally back earlier in the year, but concerns about slumping revenue fueled a recent selloff. Now trading below $300 per share, MongoDB stock is down by over 26% year-to-date.

Harsher business conditions have caused many companies to cut back on expenses, and MongoDB has suffered as a result. Nevertheless, the company has beaten revenues and earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, and MongoDB’s leadership just raised its guidance for the rest of the fiscal year.

So is MongoDB stock worth holding onto, snapping up for the first time or should you be looking for the first opportunity to sell?

Why Did MongoDB Stock Go Up?

After the company reported its earnings for the fiscal second quarter of 2025 that ended on July 31st, MongoDB leaped higher by over 18%.

The company’s revenue of $478.1 million was a 13% year-over-year improvement, and it was also 3% better than the $464.1 million analysts had expected.

MongoDB’s net loss of $54.5 million was a sharp decline from last year’s $37.6 million net loss but adjusted earnings per share of $0.70 exceeded analysts’ estimated $0.49 earnings per share for the quarter by 44.4%.

The company’s flagship Atlas platform now has 50,700 subscribers, up from 49,200 a quarter ago. MongoDB’s revenue from Atlas was up 27% year-over-year in fiscal Q2, and the platform now accounts for 71% of the company’s total revenue.

“We remain excited about our opportunity to continue capturing share in one of the largest markets in software,” said Dev Ittycheria, President and Chief Executive Officer at MongoDB in the earnings release. “Today, companies of all sizes and across nearly every industry and geography rely on MongoDB to build the software that helps them run and transform their business.”

Will MongoDB Stock Keep Going Up?

One of the main reasons why investors sold shares of MongoDB earlier this year stemmed from the fact that management forecasted slower revenue for Atlas and said would detrimentally impact the rest of the fiscal year.

Following the healthy second-quarter results, however, MongoDB’s leadership has improved its guidance again.

The company now expects revenues of between $493 million and $497 million in fiscal Q3, up from analysts’ expected $478.8 million. MongoDB’s leadership forecasted that its adjusted EPS would come in between $0.65 and $0.68, compared to the average estimate of $0.60. Management also raised its revenues and earnings expectations for the fiscal year.

To exceed those expectations will prove to be a steep climb. Database management is a prime candidate for the data-organizing abilities of artificial intelligence.

In that regard, MongoDB has led the charge on that front, launching its MongoDB AI Applications Program in July. MAAP creates a framework where platforms from tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft can coexist in a single ecosystem.

The company’s partnerships are one of its strengths, and MongoDB has earned trusted partner awards from Amazon Web Services and Microsoft. The company’s AI-driven integrations into the three main cloud players substantially increase its footprint.

“Generative AI augments and accelerates developer productivity and enhances their experience across their entire development cycle,” said Gregory Maxson, Global Lead of AI Go-To-Market at MongoDB, in an interview with VentureBeat. “AI gives developers so much more time to focus on meaningful innovation, so they can build these cool applications faster.”

MongoDB Analysts Ratings

While the company’s innovations and partnerships are exciting news for investors, it’s not immediately clear if MongoDB’s revenue slump will be short-lived.

Wall Street analysts generally seem to believe it is given that of 33 analysts who have rated MDB, 27 rate it as a Buy.

The highest forecast is $700 per share, which would be an impressive 144.5% jump from where MongoDB shares currently trade.

The average price target for the stock is $337.37 per share, which would still be a solid 17.8% improvement over the next year. There are five Hold ratings and one sell rating on MDB. Should the lowest estimate come to fruition the stock has the potential to fall 24.9% to $215 per share over the next 12 months.

Is MongoDB Stock Undervalued?

Wall Street analysts are largely bullish on MongoDB stock but with a price-to-sales multiple of 11.5x, the stock isn’t looking particularly like its on sale.

While that P/S might be lower than many of its tech peers, the NASDAQ index currently has a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 6.

MongoDB’s price-to-sales ratio is also higher than database giant Oracle, which has a comparable multiple of around 7.5. However, MongoDB has a far smaller market share than Oracle – the company has less than 1% of the corporate database market.

Will MongoDB Stock Recover?

MongoDB stock is likely to recover to $327 per share according to the consensus of 28 analysts on the back of growth in the cloud market.

The company’s small share of the massive market for enterprise database solutions could be viewed as a positive for a disruptor like MongoDB. Management has continued to beat revenue and earnings expectations every quarter, but the lowered forecast in fiscal Q1 scared many investors off.

MongoDB’s leadership has now revised those expectations after a Q2 that saw double-digit revenue growth and solid user increases. There are still lingering concerns, namely that MongoDB has continued to deepen its net losses. And even after this year’s selloff, the stock doesn’t appear to be trading at a discount.

Wall Street still largely believes that the stock will bounce back, and on the strength of its AI-based platform and strong partnerships, that could well happen. For investors who are still looking for another way to invest in AI, MongoDB is an intriguing alternative but don’t underestimate the impact of big tech competition.

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The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.