Planet Labs (NYSE: PL) opened Friday trading with an unmistakable roar. By mid-morning, the shares were up roughly 7% on volume running more than five times the norm. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flirted with new highs, Planet was in a class of its own. And the reasons run deeper than just a single headline.
Wall Street Just Raised the Bar
The first spark came early when Northland Securities boosted its price target to $8 from $7 and reiterated an “Outperform” rating. Their optimism came after Planet’s CEO Will Marshall participated in Northland’s Capital Growth Conference, where he said international demand for Planet’s data was “at an unprecedented level.”
That new price target, offering roughly 23% upside from where the stock was trading, gave momentum traders a fresh signal to lean in. But this wasn’t just a chart-watching moment because Northland’s revised model suggests analysts are beginning to price in improving fundamentals, including the new free cash flow milestone.
The Russell Reconstitution Bid
Every June, the final Friday brings one of the busiest trading days of the year thanks to the Russell reconstitution. All funds tracking the Russell 1000, 2000, and related indexes must rebalance their portfolios after the close. Planet Labs, already a Russell 2000 member, has seen its market cap skyrocket, triggering a recalibration of its weight in the index.
That means index funds are topping up their positions. This passive, mechanical buying gives a short-term boost to stocks like Planet, especially those that have gained significantly since the last rebalance.
With high liquidity and recent momentum, Planet found itself front and center on many traders’ buy lists.
7-Figure NATO Contract Turns Promise Into Purchase Orders
Earlier this month, Planet Labs announced a major win: a seven-figure contract with NATO. The deal focuses on daily monitoring and early-warning intelligence across NATO’s areas of interest. Planet’s data will be used alongside anomaly detection software, allowing for real-time analysis of developing events.
This is exactly the kind of higher-margin analytics business that investors have long wanted Planet to unlock. Beyond the revenue, the NATO contract is a validation from a global defense consortium, a sign that Planet’s offerings are not just cutting-edge, but mission-critical.
Free Cash Flow Finally Flipped Positive
Planet’s most recent earnings report included a milestone that turned heads when management reported $8 million in positive free cash flow.
It was the first such quarter since Planet went public. Revenue rose 10% year-over-year to $66 million, gross margins expanded to 59%, and backlog grew to $527 million.
Management has been cautious about calling this a trend, but even one quarter of free cash flow is a huge milestone for a company transitioning from growth-at-any-cost to disciplined capital stewardship. That shift is clearly earning the attention of analysts and long-term investors alike.
A Subtle Short-Interest Squeeze
Despite its strong performance, Planet Labs still has about 6% of its float sold short. That’s enough to spark a bit of a squeeze when good news hits. And this morning’s rally, coupled with the Russell rebalance, likely caused more than a few short sellers to scramble for cover.
By lunchtime, Planet’s trading volume had already tripled its 30-day average, suggesting that many investors were repositioning quickly. When bullish catalysts stack up like this, short interest becomes fuel for the fire.
Rebalance flows are temporary. By Monday, the artificial buying from index funds will subside. Stocks that benefitted from the rush often pull back. But Planet is more than a one-day wonder. It enters the second half of the year with three key advantages, the first being strong visibility with more than $450 million in remaining performance obligations.
It also has over $200 million in cash and negligible debt, and finally, while it may still post a small EBITDA loss in the next quarter, the trajectory toward profitability is unmistakable.
Valuation Reality Check
Even after Friday’s jump, Planet trades at just under 8x trailing revenue and a little over 4 times book value.
For a company growing revenue at a near double-digit pace with mushrooming margins, that valuation is hardly excessive.
Wall Street’s consensus 12-month target for the stock sits just above $6.50, but the range is moving higher with each new data point.
Northland’s $8 target may seem on the high end now, but it’s well within the realm of possibility, especially if Planet strings together a few more contract wins and reports consistent cash flow numbers.
Is the Market Ignoring Bumps Up Ahead?
No rally comes without risks. Planet still relies heavily on a few large government contracts.
When one ends, as happened recently with a Norwegian forestry-monitoring deal, revenue can take a hit. Plus, while free cash flow turned positive last quarter, management still expects operating losses in the near term.
And there’s always macro risk. A sudden tightening of monetary policy may well alter the demand profile for commercial satellite imagery and analytics but it must be said ongoing spending on military and defense in Europe has tailwind potential too.
The Big Picture
What began as a satellite deployment story is now shifting into a data-driven subscription business. The NATO contract proves the value of Planet’s analytics. The free cash flow win shows it can operate with discipline. And the Russell rebalance puts it squarely in the spotlight for institutions and traders alike.
While today’s rally may cool off in the coming sessions, the building blocks for long-term success are clearly falling into place. Planet may no longer be a speculative space company but is becoming a real business and has genuine momentum.
Why Is Planet Labs Stock Up Today?
Planet Labs stock is up today because of Wall Street’s validation with higher ratings and forced index buying, as well as meaningful fundamental progress.
When the closing bell rings and the reconstitution noise fades, Planet will still be holding new cards that are stronger cash flow, a defense-grade customer list, and a clearer path to profitability.
Persistent execution like this will mean today’s breakout may in hindsight appear to be just the beginning.
The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.