AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) has notched massive gains in the past week, rising by nearly 50 percent in the last five days alone. When you crunch the numbers you end up with a 179% return over the past 12 calendar months.
The business is in essence building out a satellite network designed to provide space-based cellular broadband coverage, and commercialization goals are being hit fast.
Why is AST SpaceMobile stock up so much, and could the stock still be worth buying after the large gains of the past week?
What’s Driving AST SpaceMobile Shares Up?
AST’s most recent string of gains has been driven by the business’s success in hitting key development milestones. First among these milestones was the announcement that AST’s BlueBird 6 satellite was preparing to ship and that the BlueBird 7 would be moving to its launch site later this month. In the Q2 earnings release, AST also confirmed that its plan to deploy between 45 and 60 satellites by 2026 is on track and fully funded.
ASTS has also benefited from reaching a new milestone with its Canadian partner, Bell. Early in October, the two businesses confirmed the success of a 4G voice and video call test using AST SpaceMobile’s space-based broadband network. This test further confirmed that AST’s technology is ready for commercial deployment. The test was conducted using an unmodified smartphone, demonstrating the ability of the network to work well with the everyday hardware used by most potential consumers.
These two developments, as well as the sustained expectation of many more launches over the next year, have driven much of AST SpaceMobile’s share price hike. It’s worth noting, however, that the stock was already trending upward before these two pieces of news were announced.
In September, for instance, AST appears to have been a significant beneficiary of an interest rate cut that made high-growth stocks with long time horizons for earnings more attractive.
Service is expected to begin in the United States by the end of this year. Early in 2026, AST expects to expand its coverage to the UK, Canadian and Japanese markets. Additionally, AST has secured several government contracts that could help fund it through its early stages of business growth. In total, the business has already signed eight contracts with the US government, including armed forces customers.
How High Has AST’s Valuation Gotten?
With share prices having risen so far in such a short period of time, investors would likely expect a fairly high valuation from ASTS. As a business with minimal current revenues and no positive earnings, however, AST’s stock may have climbed to a worryingly high level for many investors. ASTS currently trades at over 2,800 times trailing 12-month sales and 21.2 times book value, bringing its total market cap to over $18 billion on revenues of just $4.4 million.
Unsurprisingly, the stock is also far above the price most analysts believe it can support. Shares are currently trading at $73.46 against a consensus price target of $50.74.
Moreover, the range of analyst price forecasts runs from a low of $30 to a high of $60, implying steep losses under both the most bullish and bearish views of the stock. Ratings for the stock are also mixed with four buys and five holds as of the time of this writing.
With all of this said, it’s worth taking into account that trailing valuation multiples may not be terribly meaningful when it comes to AST SpaceMobile, as the business appears to be on the verge of generating meaningful revenue. Management projects between $50 million and $75 million in revenue in the second half of this year, a massive upgrade from the trailing 12-month number. While ASTS still trades at a fairly massive premium based on this revenue projection, it’s clearly much more reasonable than the quadruple-digit trailing P/S ratio.
Where Are the Risks?
With massive potential for both public sector contracts and partnerships with private telecommunications businesses, it’s quite possible to imagine a long and steep growth runway for AST SpaceMobile. With that said, the high rate at which it has diluted its shares up to now is cause for concern. From the end of Q2 of 2024 to Q2 of 2025, the number of outstanding shares of ASTS rose from about 141 million to nearly 242 million.
This trend has been a fairly steady one, not least evidenced by the near 76 million outstanding shares at the end of Q2 of 2023, which represents less than one-third of the present number. As such, investors could see substantial further dilution as they wait for AST to grow its revenues and move toward profitability.
AST SpaceMobile could also still face meaningful competition from Starlink, especially if it fails to deploy its satellites at the expected rate. Starlink is already working to deliver widespread 5G cellular coverage via satellite, something that could put it out in front of AST.
Is Now the Time to Buy ASTS?
While there’s little doubt that AST SpaceMobile has considerable potential, the recent price surge may have brought the stock to a valuation that it could have trouble sustaining.
At its current price, AST SpaceMobile could have very limited room for missteps or delays, creating substantial risks under anything less than a best-case scenario. The current bullishness on ASTS also doesn’t seem to fully factor in the fact that it’s in direct competition with Starlink, an extremely well-funded and more established business.
Overall, ASTS may be too expensive to buy right now. Though there may well be significant room for future revenue as the business deploys more satellites and begins to deliver on its commercial potential, there are also meaningful risks, particularly in overpaying at this time so buyer beware is the name of the game.
The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.