Target Today: A Quick Status Check

Target just posted first‑quarter fiscal‑2025 revenue of $23.8 billion, a 2.8% year‑over‑year dip as shoppers pulled back on discretionary goods. Comparable sales slid 5.7%, yet digital comps rose 4.7% on the back of a 35% surge in same‑day services like Drive Up and Shipt deliveries.

At roughly $95 a share in mid‑June 2025, the market values Target at about $44 billion, less than Costco, far below Walmart, and smack in “prove‑it” territory after two bumpy years.

The Growth Levers for the 2030s

Management plans to open roughly 300 additional smaller locations over the next decade, with a heavy tilt toward small‑format sites that fit suburban pockets and college towns Walmart can’t squeeze into.

An April 2024 overhaul split Target Circle into free and paid tiers. Executives now aim to triple membership in the Target Circle 360 paid program within three years, harvesting richer data and driving larger basket sizes.

Shop‑in‑shop partnerships keep luring traffic that might otherwise drift to Sephora, Amazon, or the mall. The kate spade limited‑time collection, for instance, was billed as Target’s strongest design collaboration in a decade.

Eleven purpose‑built sortation centers are already shaving last‑mile costs, part of a capital plan to invest $3.5 billion–$5.5 billion per year on logistics, store remodels, and tech upgrades.

Shareholder‑Friendly Math

Even in a sluggish year, Target kept its streak alive, announcing a 1.8% dividend hike, its 54th consecutive annual increase while also buying back 2.2 million shares in the latest quarter.

Roughly $8.4 billion remains on its current authorization, and only 455.6 million shares were outstanding at 2024 year‑end.

Those numbers matter because if free cash flow rebounds consistent buybacks could retire about 1% to 1.5% of shares annually, quietly lifting per‑share earnings even if revenue grows at a modest clip.

Building a Ten‑Year Model

Imagine Target claws back lost discretionary sales and grows the top line 3% per year via new stores, inflation‑indexed price increases, and e‑commerce share gains. Revenue would move from about $107 billion today to roughly $144 billion by fiscal 2034.

Before the 2020-21 era, Target posted an 8% operating margin. “Shrink”, retail‑speak for theft, knocked off roughly 1.2 percentage points between 2019 and 2023, but RFID tags, locked cases, and upgraded security pilots appear to be lowering the pain. Splitting the difference, a long‑run margin of 7% feels defensible.

On the share count issue, retiring 1% of shares each year would trim the float from 455 million to around 410 million by 2034.

Put it together and you get about $10.1 billion in operating income, which flows to roughly $7.6 billion in net income after taxes and interest. Divide by 410 million shares and you land near $18.50 in EPS—almost double today’s run‑rate.

What Multiple Might Wall Street Slap On That?

Target’s price‑to‑earnings ratio has ping‑ponged between 12 during moments of panic and 24 at peaks of enthusiasm.

Assigning a mid‑range multiple of 17× to a steadier, tech‑enhanced Target in 2035, the share price would land near $315. Add a dividend yield that hovers around 3% and compounds for a decade, and the total return edges north of 9% per year, solid, if not Nvidia‑like.

A loftier 20× view would push the price north of $370 and lift returns into the mid‑teens. A harsher 14× verdict perhaps after a recession or e‑commerce misstep sends the stock toward $260, translating to high‑single‑digit annual returns when dividends are included.

How The Target Story Gets Derailed

Consumer fatigue remains front and center and management recently slashed its full‑year sales outlook after projecting growth only a few months earlier, emphasizing how fast discretionary demand can evaporate.

Culture‑war flare‑ups are another wild card, boycotts tied to merchandise decisions dented traffic in 2023 and 2024, and lightning could strike again.

Competition also lurks everywhere and Walmart is leaning into high‑margin advertising, while Dollar General is courting inflation‑pinched shoppers, and Amazon keeps compressing delivery times.

Shrink might re‑accelerate if organized‑retail crime evolves faster than Target’s deterrents.

Finally, management’s sprawling slate of remodels, new store formats, loyalty tiers, and supply‑chain upgrades demands flawless execution, a single tech outage during holiday season could erase months of goodwill.

Catalysts To Upside Surprise

A rapidly growing membership flywheel is one potential game‑changer. Take Target Circle 360 that is forecast to attract five million paying members by 2028, the incremental fees and higher order frequency could boost margins beyond the conservative 7% penciled in earlier.

An advertising gold mine is another possibility: Roundel, Target’s in‑house ad network, is still a rounding error next to Walmart Connect, but even a modest ad‑margin kicker would move the earnings needle.

And while international expansion is only a whisper today, memories of the short‑lived Canadian foray linger, an asset‑light marketplace or franchise model could surface late in the decade if domestic growth plateaus.

A Decade‑Long Road Map in Plain English

Where Will Target’s Stock Be in 10 Years?

Projecting a precise sticker price for 2035 is part art, part algebra. But the inputs are knowable in the form of disciplined capital returns, a decades‑long dividend habit, a store footprint still expanding, and a digital flywheel that finally looks Amazon‑resistant.

We see Target executing its remodeling spree, keeping shrink in check, and coaxing shoppers into a paid “circle,” leading to a low‑double‑digit annual return, roughly half from earnings growth and half from dividends, and it feels achievable. Miss those mile markers, and the stock likely grinds higher with inflation.

Either way, the next ten years will hinge on something more old‑fashioned than algorithms: whether shoppers continue to mutter, “I came in for toothpaste and left $200 poorer,” with a smile. Bet on that enduring habit, and Target’s 2035 price tag should start with a “3.”