Where Will Planet Labs Stock Be in 3 Years?

Planet Labs is far from a typical satellite-imager company. Founded by ex-NASA scientists, it pioneered swarms of inexpensive CubeSats (Doves), offering daily global Earth monitoring.

Over the years, it has expanded into the high-resolution SkySat fleet and is now pioneering the Pelican constellation with 30 cm resolution and revisit rates up to 30 times per day in key zones.

This aggressive pipeline is unmatched in temporal and spatial resolution, which opens doors to unparalleled commercial and government contracts.

And Now Momentum Is Gaining

Q1 Fiscal 2026 posted breakeven adjusted EPS and $8 million in free cash flow—its first positive quarterly FCF, a major milestone.

Q2 followed with a narrower loss than expected (−$0.07 vs. −$0.09) and revenue of $73.4 million, beating consensus estimates; FCF is tracking toward potentially over $100 million by fiscal year-end.

A staggering increase in backlog from $221 million a year ago to $527 million drives visibility into future revenue and full-year revenue guidance raised to $281–289 million, above previous $265–280 million range.

If this trajectory holds, Planet will be generating predictable cash flow, improving earnings multiples and investor sentiment.

3-Year Scenarios, Catalysts & Risks

Below is a speculative projection for 2028, blending current momentum with market potential yet grounded in the numbers:

Base Case

  • Revenue: Assume 17% CAGR → ~$400 million by 2028

  • FCF: If margins continue improving, FCF could scale to $150–200 million.

  • Multiple: At ~25× FCF, valuation might target $25–30/share.

Bull Case

  • Accelerated contract wins, especially from defense and global monitoring clients.

  • Pelican constellation and AI-enabled analytics deliver premium pricing.

  • Valuation: 30–35× FCF on $200 M → $40–50/share.

Bear Case

  • Competition or delays in satellite deployment.

  • Macro headwinds or lower-than-expected contract conversion.

  • Valuation: ~15× FCF on $100 M → $15/share or lower.

Key Catalysts to Watch:

  • Full deployment and commercialization of Pelican series imagery services.

  • Sustained positive free cash flow and margin expansion.

  • Landmark contracts, such as U.S. government defense, climate intelligence clients.

  • Commercial space volatility remains high).

Facts Most Retail Investors Overlook

Pelican’s stealth launch edge: Many aren’t aware Planet is already validating Pelican-1 as of November 2023—the next-gen constellation promising 10–30 daily revisits with 30 cm resolution, a potential game-changer for pricing premium and recurring revenue.

Historical projections baked in: At its SPAC merger in December 2021, Planet laid out targets of adjusted‑EBITDA profitability by 2025 and nearly $700 million revenue by 2026. It’s worth measuring progress against those public goals.

War chest buffer: Post-SPAC, Planet had roughly $500 million in capital to fund operations for years, providing flexibility amid capex-heavy satellite deployment phases.

Where Will PL Be in 3 Years?

Expect Planet Labs data to holds and you can reasonably envision the stock landing in the range of $25–40 per share by 2028. That reflects double-digit annual growth, sustained cash flow, and a market starting to reward unique Earth-imagery platforms in a macro-focused world.

But remember the commercial space sector is volatile. Execution gaps, funding delays, or market re-rating will pull valuations back to the teens, or worse.

Still, for investors with a long-term view, a keen eye on backlog, FCF, and the rollout of Pelican, and who can stomach the altitude swings, Planet Labs offers a compelling, high-reward bet.

The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.