Moderna (MRNA) stock experienced exponential growth over the past few years due to profits and publicity from its coronavirus vaccine.
As the demand for COVID-19 vaccines has declined, however, the company’s meteoric climb has come to a halt. The stock is currently down around 3% over the past year and isn’t likely to trend up.
On top of that, recent news about the increased cost of the COVID vaccine and delays in Moderna’s flu vaccine has caused the company to face increased scrutiny, and the stock price has taken hits at each announcement.
There is still hope for the future, though, as the biotech giant recently announced a series of vaccines that will target everything from heart disease to cancer. But these vaccines still face clinical trials and regulatory approval, which can take years to overcome.
So where will Moderna stock be 12 months from now?
Moderna Overview
MRNA shares gained over 400% in 2020 and over 100% in 2021. But 2022 marked a downward trend that’s carried into this year.
The company reported over $18 billion in sales in 2022 but that was due in large part to the COVID vaccine. That revenue is certain to decline, with no immediate relief in sight. 2022 Fourth Quarter sales were down almost 30% and while that did beat estimates, it’s not a promising trend.
Even though this year’s sales won’t match 2022 highs, Moderna is still one of the top biotech companies in the world and that isn’t likely to change. It’s even possible that Moderna grows through mergers and the acquisition of smaller companies and further expands its reach.
Unfortunately, Moderna will still face the hurdles that all biotech companies face. Research and development are costly and time-consuming, and trials and government approvals mean there won’t be any quick replacement for the COVID vaccine’s profits.
Vaccine Price Hike Concerns
Recent news hasn’t been entirely positive either, starting with the March announcement that Moderna will raise its COVID vaccine price to $130 per dose. This price spike is necessary because Moderna now mainly sells the vaccine to the government, not to private clients.
The price jump, a marked increase over the current price of $26 a dose, has caused some pushback from legislators. Senators claim that Moderna’s vaccine was funded with taxpayer dollars and that taxpayers shouldn’t have to pay $130 dollars for a vaccine that costs $3 to make.
Moderna’s CEO, Stephane Bancel, stated that the company has paid back the funds that the government provided for the development of the vaccine. Bancel said the diminished demand for the vaccine and the difficulties of the current market justify the price increase.
Despite Bancel’s justifications, MRNA shares fell on the news.
Other Ups and Downs
Adding to recent woes, Moderna stock dropped on news that the company’s new experimental flu vaccine failed in late-stage trials, due to a lack of enrolled cases. This caused another drop in stock price.
The flu vaccine showed strong results against flu type A but it was subpar on type B in the most recent trials. Moderna still expects to meet revenue expectations for the year in spite of the setback.
In more positive news, the company announced it would work with Generation Bio on a deal to implement that company’s drug delivery system on a larger scale. Moderna also announced partnerships with gene editing and DNA synthesis companies that would keep the company on the cutting edge of biotechnology.
A Revolutionary Breakthrough
The most important announcement from Moderna is its program of new vaccines, all slated to be released by 2030. These revolutionary vaccines take aim at diseases that were previously considered untreatable, including cancer, heart disease, and other non-infectious conditions.
The same messenger RNA (mRNA) technology used in Moderna’s COVID vaccine can be used to treat other chronic conditions. Evidence from a trial involving melanoma patients and Moderna’s immunotherapy drug was the catalyst for hope for a new treatment of cancer.
The company also announced a vaccine targeting Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a disease similar to the common cold. Even though it’s not as harmful to healthy adults, it can be deadly to smaller children and seniors. Both the RSV and the cancer vaccines have achieved Breakthrough Therapy Designations by the FDA.
Even though there is the possibility that these vaccines will be available as early as five years from now, it’s much more like that they won’t be available until 2030 due to the process of clinical trials and FDA approval.
mRNA Technology Concerns
There are some concerns about the effectiveness of mRNA technology. The major question is the staying power of the new vaccines. Like the COVID vaccine, the vaccines could lose their effectiveness as time goes by. It’s still not clear whether this is a result of mRNA technology or a result of the ever-changing nature of the disease it treats.
If the new vaccines only offer short-term results, they may face opposition from the public. The marked decline in the number of COVID booster shots is evidence that consumers don’t want to take a new vaccine every few months. The only way to answer these questions is to spend more time on research and development, which could cause further delays.
Where Will Moderna Stock Be In 1 Year?
Moderna is one of the largest biotech companies in the world, and even though the COVID vaccine revenues have declined, the brand recognition, profits, and technology Moderna gained in the process have set the company up for future success.
Unfortunately, recent news and the long timeline before new vaccines are released means that the company is likely to face headwinds in the near future. Over the next year, it’s likely that the stock price will remain the same or even continue its downward trajectory. After all, fair value sits at $156 per share, which is precisely where the share price was at the time of research.
But the ground-breaking nature of the new vaccines means Moderna is a company worth watching. If these vaccines are effective and on time, Moderna could be in for another meteoric rise as we reach the end of the decade.
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