If you’re looking at Henry Schein (NASDAQ: HSIC) and wondering whether this stock has room to run or if it’s stuck in neutral, you’re not alone. It’s one of those names that doesn’t make headlines like Apple or Nvidia but quietly supports the foundation of healthcare in the United States and beyond. Over the next five years, there are some solid reasons to keep it on your radar. There are also a few red flags worth paying attention to.
So let’s break it down. What’s going right what’s dragging and where might the stock go by 2030?
The Business Behind the Brand
First off if you’re not super familiar with Henry Schein here’s the gist. The company is a giant distributor of medical and dental supplies selling everything from masks and gloves to software that helps clinics run more efficiently. It doesn’t make the headlines but it makes a ton of stuff happen behind the scenes in doctor’s offices and dental practices.
It’s not the sexiest business in the world. But it’s sticky. Once a practice signs on with Schein it tends to stick around. That’s because the company does more than ship boxes — it provides software financing consulting and more. So clients aren’t just buying gauze they’re buying a whole system.
And in 2025 business is still growing even if it’s not blowing the roof off.
The Latest Numbers Show Slow But Steady Progress
In Q1 2025 Henry Schein reported sales of $3.25 billion which marked a 2.7 percent increase over the same period in 2024. Not exactly a rocket ship but steady growth. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.21, a slight beat from what Wall Street was expecting.
Honestly the dental side of the business is doing most of the heavy lifting right now. Dental sales were up about 4 percent while medical supplies grew by closer to 1 percent. And software services which include its tech platforms and consulting arm rose 6 percent.
It’s not going to wow anyone but that kind of broad-based stability matters. Especially when you’re building a five-year outlook.
Margins Are Getting Squeezed
Now here’s the part that might worry you. Henry Schein’s margins are under pressure. The cost of doing business has ticked up a bit thanks in part to higher labor expenses and freight costs. Operating margins came in at 7.5 percent which is lower than the company’s historical range.
That’s not a disaster but it’s worth watching. If those margins keep getting pinched it’ll cap earnings growth even if revenue keeps climbing.
So the question is what levers can Schein pull to keep profits moving in the right direction?
Here’s Where Things Might Get Interesting
One area that’s showing real promise is the company’s investment in tech. Henry Schein has been buying and building out software tools that help practices with scheduling billing inventory and even patient engagement.
That software business is higher margin and more scalable than shipping boxes of gloves. And right now it accounts for about 8 percent of total revenue. If that share climbs into double digits over the next five years that could be a serious tailwind.
Also management recently acquired a smaller digital imaging business that plugs into its dental software ecosystem. That’s the kind of bolt-on acquisition that could make a big difference over time. It won’t grab headlines but it’ll boost value for shareholders if the integration goes smoothly.
Analysts See Room for Upside
Right now Wall Street analysts are projecting mid-single-digit revenue growth through 2030. Earnings per share are expected to rise at around 7 percent annually. That’s not explosive growth but in a defensive industry like healthcare it’s nothing to sneeze at.
The average 12-month price target for the stock sits around $89 which implies roughly 14 percent upside from current levels. But that doesn’t include what could happen if margins start to improve or the software segment really gains traction.
If the company hits the higher end of earnings expectations and trades back to its historical P E multiple of 18 shares could easily rise 25 to 30 percent over the next few years.
And Here’s a Stat That Caught My Eye
You might not have noticed this but Henry Schein has been quietly reducing its share count. Over the past 12 months the company has repurchased more than 4 million shares. That’s about 3 percent of the float. If that trend continues it’ll give EPS a nice lift even without huge revenue growth.
It’s a subtle sign of confidence — and one that suggests management sees value at current levels.
But Don’t Ignore the Risks
Here’s the thing. This isn’t a slam-dunk stock. A few things could throw a wrench in the gears.
One is competition. Amazon and other online platforms are nibbling at the edges of the supply business. They don’t offer the same integrated services but they’re cheaper and faster and that could erode some of Schein’s smaller accounts.
Second the company relies heavily on independent dental practices which are facing their own margin pressures and consolidation trends. If big dental chains keep growing they might look to cut their own supply deals or push for lower pricing.
And finally interest rates matter here. Schein doesn’t carry a ton of debt but rising rates make acquisitions more expensive and reduce the appeal of buying back stock.
So Where Will the Stock Be in 2030?
If Schein grows earnings at a 7 percent clip and maintains a P E of around 16 shares could hit $105 by 2030. That’s a roughly 30 percent gain from current prices and doesn’t include dividends — though Schein doesn’t currently pay one. If management decides to introduce a dividend over the next few years that could be another boost.
On the upside if the software and services business grows faster than expected and operating margins bounce back to pre-2023 levels the stock could be worth closer to $115 or $120 in five years.
But if margin pressure intensifies or growth slows to a crawl we might be looking at a flat stock.
Final Take
Henry Schein is the kind of company that rarely makes headlines but keeps healthcare running. It’s not flashy. It’s not fast-growing. But it’s steady and surprisingly innovative under the surface.
If you’re looking for a hyper-growth name this probably isn’t it. But if you want a business with a durable moat stable customer base and room for improvement Henry Schein has the bones of a decent five-year play.
Especially if the company leans into tech doubles down on margin expansion and keeps shrinking its share count.
The next few quarters will be key to seeing which way this stock leans. But for now the long-term outlook looks cautiously optimistic.
And hey maybe I’m the only one who cares about operating margin trends in dental distribution but that 7.5 percent print stood out. If it climbs back over 9 percent you’ll probably wish you bought shares today.
The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.