If you’ve ever wondered what it’s like to invest in a company that makes money helping other companies make decisions, look no further than Gartner (IT). It’s the powerhouse behind a ton of those “strategic initiatives” you hear about on earnings calls. But let’s cut through the buzzwords. Where is this thing actually headed by 2030?
Well the short version is this, Gartner has been printing profits and is riding a few tailwinds that could push it much higher over the next five years. But is that baked into the price already?
That’s what we’re here to figure out.
A Steady Climber With Room to Run?
Before we get into the crystal ball stuff, let’s talk about the current state of play. Gartner kicked off 2025 by reminding Wall Street why it’s one of the rare business intelligence companies that actually makes real money. In Q1, revenue rose 8 percent year over year to $1.51 billion. Not bad for a research firm, right?
Even better, adjusted EPS came in at $3.07, up from $2.88 in the prior year. That beat analyst estimates by a few cents and helped push the stock up 6 percent post-earnings.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. Gartner isn’t really a growth rocket like a software stock, it’s more of a compounding machine. Clients renew at rates north of 80 percent. Margins stay fat. Free cash flow is strong. In fact, management expects to pull in more than $1.5 billion in free cash flow this year alone.
And hey maybe I’m the only one who cares about this stat but in 2025 Gartner crossed 20,000 enterprise clients. That’s up from just under 18,000 five years ago. It may not sound wild but in this kind of high-ticket B2B world that’s impressive. Especially since a lot of their clients actually stick around and spend more.
The AI Angle Isn’t Just Hype
OK so let’s address the elephant in the boardroom, artificial intelligence. Every company is throwing the term around like candy these days but Gartner is one of the few firms that actually benefits in multiple ways.
For starters they’re selling research to execs who are desperate to figure out what AI means for their business. And surprise, that research isn’t cheap. They’re also doing high-margin consulting and events around AI integration, all of which carry much higher price tags than your average business webinar.
And second Gartner is quietly using AI internally to streamline operations and boost analyst productivity. In Q1 2025, management hinted that its AI-powered analyst tools are already speeding up client deliverables. That’s the kind of margin tailwind Wall Street loves.
Honestly I didn’t expect this but Gartner’s AI reports are becoming must-reads in the C-suite. That’s not nothing.
Big Picture Metrics Look… Pretty Solid
Right now Gartner trades at about 28 times forward earnings. That’s not exactly cheap, but it’s also not crazy when you zoom out. We’re talking about a business with mid-teens earnings growth, gross margins over 70 percent, and virtually no debt worries.
The company bought back $750 million worth of stock in the first half of 2025. That’s a big number. Buybacks like that say two things. One, they’re confident in the business. Two, they’re confident the stock’s undervalued. If that trend continues you’re looking at a serious earnings-per-share tailwind.
Also worth noting is analysts now have a 12-month price target of $485 on the stock. That’s about 16 percent upside from today’s level. Not huge. But remember we’re playing the long game here.
So What’s the 5-Year Outlook?
Let’s say Gartner grows earnings at 12 percent annually. That’s actually conservative given the last five years. If the market continues to reward that growth with a 25 to 28 times multiple, the stock could easily rise 60 to 80 percent from current levels.
That would put it in the $600 to $650 range by 2030. Sprinkle in some buybacks and that number gets even more interesting. We’re not even counting dividends here since Gartner doesn’t currently pay one. But who knows, with all that cash flow maybe that changes.
To be fair, a recession may well hit corporate spending. A pullback in business spending on research and consulting budgets will hit Gartner.
But here’s the thing, Gartner’s brand is sticky. Their research is often considered the gold standard. That kind of reputation doesn’t evaporate overnight.
Analysts Are Paying Attention
In the past six months, two major investment banks have upgraded Gartner. One cited “recurring revenue visibility” and “pricing power,” while the other flagged Gartner’s growing presence in international markets, especially Asia and Europe.
You don’t see this often for a company with a market cap over $35 billion, but some analysts are calling it an “under-the-radar compounding machine.” Their words not mine.
Also worth watching is insider activity. In April 2025 a director scooped up $2 million worth of shares. That’s not some token move. That’s conviction.
What Could Surprise to the Upside?
There’s a scenario where Gartner leans deeper into AI-driven offerings and starts bundling analytics tools with research. That could unlock a whole new revenue stream. Imagine Gartner plus software-as-a-service. They haven’t gone there yet but if they do? The multiple could expand fast.
Also their events business is recovering faster than expected. If that segment keeps accelerating, we could be looking at a revenue mix shift that juices margins even more.
And here’s where it gets weird, some hedge funds have started comparing Gartner to Adobe in its early B2B SaaS dominance phase. That’s a stretch but the logic isn’t totally off. Both built moats on content and expertise, and indeed scaled slowly while avoiding price wars by owning their niches.
Final Take
So where will Gartner be in five years?
If you just want the math, a 12 percent annual earnings bump and a stable 25x multiple gets you to about $600 per share. That’s around 60 percent upside from today. And if they hit the gas on new AI services or grow events revenue faster than expected we could be looking at 80 percent gains or more.
This is not a “shoot-the-moon” kind of stock. But if you’re after something with high visibility strong cash flow and real pricing power Gartner checks a lot of boxes.
Honestly it’s the kind of stock you buy and forget about for a while. Not flashy. Just reliable. And that’s exactly what makes it dangerous, in a good way.
If you’re building a portfolio for the long haul Gartner might not be the first name you reach for but it’s one of the few that could still quietly double your money.
The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.