If you’ve been anywhere near the crypto world over the past few years, you already know Coinbase is a name that tends to spark strong opinions. Some folks see it as the future of finance.
Others call it a casino wrapped in a tech hoodie. But here’s the thing love it or hate it, this stock has a real shot at looking a whole lot different five years from now. So where’s Coinbase heading by 2030?
Let’s dig in.
Coinbase in 2025 Is Still Standing Tall
First, a reality check. In Q1 2025, Coinbase reported net revenue of $1.96 billion. That’s not just solid, that’s up 23.5 percent year over year. And no, this wasn’t some one-time fluke.
Transaction revenue jumped thanks to a pickup in trading volumes across Bitcoin Ethereum and a few other heavy hitters. Add in growth from its subscription and services segment and you’ve got a company that’s starting to look like more than just a crypto tollbooth.
That services piece by the way is quietly doing heavy lifting. Staking rewards custody fees and blockchain infrastructure tools brought in over $500 million in Q1 alone. That’s now more than 30 percent of total revenue and growing.
Honestly not a bad way to diversify away from the highs and lows of crypto trading.
What’s Driving Coinbase Higher Right Now?
Three things are giving Coinbase a tailwind in 2025. First the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since their approval in early January trading volumes across the crypto space have climbed. And guess who gets a slice of every trade on its platform Coinbase. Plus as the custodian for many of these ETFs Coinbase is pulling in fees from the asset managers too. That’s double-dipping in the best way possible.
Second there’s regulatory clarity. We’re not talking perfect rules here but it’s no longer the Wild West. In April the SEC finally confirmed that Ethereum is a commodity not a security. That removed a major overhang from the altcoin market and gave Coinbase more room to grow its Ethereum-based products without legal headaches.
And third Wall Street is coming around. In May Morgan Stanley raised its price target citing strong user engagement and the expanding revenue base. They weren’t alone. J.P. Morgan Goldman Sachs and Barclays have all boosted their outlooks this year.
User Growth Is Heating Up Again
After a brutal crypto winter user numbers are rising again. Monthly transacting users hit 9.8 million in Q1 2025 up from 8.3 million the previous quarter. More telling the average revenue per user climbed 18 percent. So not only are more people trading they’re trading more often and spending more per trade.
That’s a big deal. High user growth with rising monetization is the kind of combo investors dream about.
Institutional trading volume now accounts for 68 percent of total volume on the platform. That’s a big leap from the retail-dominated days of 2021. The pros are showing up and bringing deep pockets with them.
Looking Out to 2030
So where’s this stock heading by 2030?
Here’s where things get interesting. Analysts at Bernstein see Coinbase growing revenue at a 23 percent annual clip for the next five years. That gets you to over $6.5 billion in net revenue by 2030. If net margins stabilize around 25 percent that’s roughly $1.6 billion in net income. Now here’s where the math kicks in.
With 240 million shares outstanding and that $1.6 billion in earnings you’re looking at around $6.67 in earnings per share. At a 30x multiple, which isn’t crazy for a high-growth fintech platform, Coinbase stock lands at $200.
Today it trades around the mid $200-$300 range. So wait isn’t that a letdown?
Not exactly.
That price is optimistic but assumes no new moonshots or tokenized stocks. No decentralized identity tools. No embedded finance partnerships. Just steady execution on what they’re already doing.
Put those into the mix and $300 becomes more realistic. At a 40x multiple on $6.67 EPS that’s $267. Add cash and subtract debt and you’re comfortably in the $275 to $300 range.
What Do Bulls Think?
The bullish case for Coinbase rests on them becoming the go-to infrastructure layer for crypto in the U.S. That’s not just about trading. It’s custody developer tools staking compliance onboarding and more. Think of it like AWS for crypto. Not flashy just essential.
Secondly, their regulatory moat is getting deeper and while smaller rivals face lawsuits or shutdowns Coinbase is building relationships with lawmakers and compliance teams. They have got licenses in Europe too which opens up a whole new market.
And three crypto adoption isn’t slowing down. Tokenized assets are gaining traction. Major financial institutions are testing blockchain-based settlements. BlackRock and Fidelity are not dabbling, they’re building. Coinbase is where they’re plugging in.
The Bearish Take And Why It Might Be Missing Something
Skeptics think Coinbase will always be chained to Bitcoin’s mood swings. They say the business model is too dependent on transaction fees and that competition is only getting tougher.
But that argument doesn’t hold as much weight in 2025.
Transaction revenue now makes up less than 60 percent of total revenue. The rest comes from subscriptions staking custody and other services. That’s a more stable base than it’s had in years.
Plus Coinbase has $5.1 billion in cash on the balance sheet. No debt. They’re not going bankrupt if crypto takes a nap. They’ll just keep building.
Insider Moves and Institutional Interest
This part flew under the radar but it matters. In February 2025 ARK Invest scooped up another $35 million worth of Coinbase stock bringing its total stake north of $1.2 billion. CEO Cathie Wood hasn’t sold a single share since 2022.
And there’s more. BlackRock disclosed a 3.8 percent stake in April through multiple ETF products and separately managed accounts. When the big dogs double down like that it’s not by accident.
So Where Will Coinbase Stock Be in 5 Years?
Coinbase today is valued like a volatile trading shop. But by 2030 it will look more like a financial infrastructure provider. You’re not just betting on crypto prices, you’re betting on the rails that move the whole system.
Here’s the setup:
Revenue may grow 20 to 25 percent per year
Profit margins may hover around 25 percent
EPS lands somewhere near $7
At a 30x multiple that puts the stock at $210
With growth optionality and some risk appetite $300 is well within reach
And remember this is all with no meme rallies or market froth. Just cold hard numbers.
Coinbase isn’t the kind of stock that tiptoes. It surges or stumbles. But with better regulation rising adoption and serious money backing it the odds of another breakout are climbing.
Is that enough to spark a long-term bull run? Let’s just say a lot of smart money seems to think so.
The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.