Anthropic, the business behind the Claude AI chatbot, has grown enormously over the past year and risen to become one of the leading startups at the cutting edge of the AI field. The business’s massive growth and focus on enterprise AI have even invited comparisons with Microsoft, especially as ties between the software giant and Anthropic have grown closer. Is Anthropic the next Microsoft, and can investors expect an IPO anytime in the near future that will let them benefit from Anthropic’s growth?
Anthropic Vs OpenAI: 2 Different Plays on AI
When it comes to the consumer end of AI, there’s little doubt that OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot has taken an early lead. Over one-third of US adults have used ChatGPT at some point, far and away the largest share among chatbots overall. In terms of global market share, ChatGPT remains undeniably dominant at over 80 percent, with Claude trailing at around 1 percent and outranked by the likes of Perplexity and Gemini.
Where Anthropic’s Claude stands out, however, is in its appeal to enterprise customers. Anthropic began drawing this distinction fairly early on, introducing its Claude Enterprise service over a year ago. Whereas ChatGPT is still preferred for informal tasks, Claude tends to outperform in specialized work tasks, particularly in terms of programming. This gives Anthropic the ability to compete by focusing on a narrow niche where ChatGPT leaves something to be desired.
Anthropic’s Scale Is Something To Behold
As with many fast-growing private startups, it can sometimes be difficult to get exact data on how large Anthropic has become. Fortunately, though, recent investment deals with Microsoft and NVIDIA have revealed a current valuation of approximately $350 billion for Anthropic. This is a massive increase on the $183 billion valuation reported in September of this year. While this still puts it well behind the $1 trillion valuation at which OpenAI reportedly hopes to go public next year, it’s clear that Anthropic is growing at an extremely fast pace.
Microsoft and Anthropic Are Two Peas In a Pod
Even at a surface level, it’s not difficult to see the strong similarities between Microsoft in its earlier years and Anthropic today. The early widespread adoption of Microsoft Office established the business as a major professional player, and its enterprise portfolio was later bolstered by the addition of cloud computing, the acquisition of professional network LinkedIn and, most recently, investments in AI. Even as competitors like Apple won on the consumer side of tech, Microsoft remained enormously relevant by catering to the tech needs of businesses.
A similar dynamic now appears to be playing out between OpenAI and Anthropic, and the results for Anthropic have been staggeringly positive. Two years ago, Anthropic had under 1,000 business customers, a number that has grown to over 300,000 today. Similarly, between the beginning of 2024 and August of this year, Anthropic’s ARR exploded from just $87 million to a self-reported total of over $5 billion.
Anthropic could also have an excellent opportunity to close the gap between the results businesses and individuals have seen from AI. Although chatbots have been very popular among consumer users, a review conducted by MIT earlier this year found that some 95 percent of businesses fail to generate positive ROI from their AI projects. By offering AI tools geared specifically toward businesses and providing frameworks for implementing those tools effectively, Anthropic could succeed where other AI startups have so far failed.
Will Anthropic Go Public?
A final pressing question about Anthropic is whether or not it will go public anytime in the foreseeable future. So far, Anthropic hasn’t filed for an IPO, instead being content to raise capital privately. OpenAI’s likely IPO, however, may provide a roadmap for Anthropic to eventually go public in its own right. Though it’s a matter of complete speculation as to when an IPO could eventually take place, it’s far from difficult to imagine Anthropic eventually going public as its need for capital to drive expansion grows.
So, Is Anthropic the Next Microsoft?
It’s difficult to dispute that there are striking parallels between Anthropic’s approach to AI and Microsoft’s early business-oriented approach to personal computers and workplace software. In spirit, at least, Anthropic appears to be trying to capture the enterprise side of its market in much the same way Microsoft was able to. This approach could bear fruit, especially as users begin to rely on different AI tools for different tasks more widely.
Even so, key differences remain. Chief among these is the highly diversified portfolio of technology business lines Microsoft has built up, allowing it to provide an end-to-end set of solutions for businesses. Indeed, this can even be seen in Microsoft’s relationship with Anthropic, as the AI startup has committed to purchasing $30 billion worth of Microsoft’s Azure compute capacity to help drive its ongoing growth.
It’s also important to keep in mind that Anthropic is far from a sure thing. Despite promising growth in both revenue and enterprise customers, Claude’s market share remains tiny compared to ChatGPT’s. Both Anthropic and OpenAI are still innovating rapidly in an emerging field of tech, leaving something of an open question as to what their respective trajectories could look like over the course of several years.
While there are still plenty of questions to be answered when it comes to how the AI chatbot market will develop, Anthropic appears to have at least the potential to follow a path similar to the one Microsoft took in personal computing and software. By focusing on enterprise use over consumer appeal, Anthropic could build a highly lucrative stream of recurring revenues and create a powerful AI ecosystem for business users. Early signs of success are already showing up in Anthropic’s self-reported revenue numbers, though limited information is available due to its decision to remain private so far.
At the same time, though, the competitive landscape around AI is still very young, and OpenAI appears to have established something of a moat by virtue of first-mover status and sheer market share. While Anthropic seems to have the potential to follow in Microsoft’s footsteps, it remains to be seen whether or not it can turn that potential into a durable competitive advantage.
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