3 Stocks That Could 5x In 10 Years

Upstart

The AI-powered lending platform Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has been on an unstoppable run since its IPO in December last year, with the credit originator up more than 700% in 2021 alone.

The FinTech innovator uses sophisticated data analysis and artificial intelligence-led algorithms to assess the real risk of a loan, claiming its processes can result in increases of 173% of money loaned by partner institutions, while also lowering loss rates for banks by nearly 75%.

At the moment, Upstart only operates in the personal loan space, specializing in unsecured products such as home improvement loans, special occasion loans, credit card consolidation packages and medical loans. But the company’s also just begun to branch out into the lucrative auto loan industry, where there exists a substantial market potential.

If UPST is going to continue growing at the rate it has been for the last year, taking revenues from this opportunity will be crucial. For example, Upstart currently reckons that the total addressable market for its personal loan originations is worth $84 billion, while the auto loan originations market is worth $635 billion.

The entire US consumer credit market is worth about $4.4 trillion, suggesting that UPST – with its unique advantage in the Cloud-based AI lending field – can ride this huge secular trend to massive profits.

In fact, Upstart’s revenues for the last quarter were up an astonishing 1,018% at $194 million, making predictions of going 5-times higher in valuation seen somewhat modest.

Since UPST doesn’t actually underwrite any loans itself, the firm essentially has no exposure to the usual downside risks associated with the credit issuing industry.

Most of its revenues – around 97% – come from platform and referral fees, with customers happy to pay a small premium for access to increased approval ratings, more competitive interest rates, and a quick and friction-free fully digital application process. This kind of competitive moat gives Upstart a solid advantage against other legacy peers in the industry which lack this technological edge.

Upstart has agreements with about 25 banks and credit unions at the present time, up from just 10 when it launched its public float in late 2020.

But in a recent interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer, UPST CEO Dave Girouard said he’d be “shocked” if that number hadn’t risen into the hundreds in a couple of years. This should be music to investors’ ears, a sure signal that Upstart is on the path right to success.

And after hearing the company raise its full-year guidance after a better-than-expected Second Quarter earnings report, Citigroup analyst Peter Christiansen upgraded the stock from a Neutral to a Buy – meaning anyone who gets in now is in pretty good Wall Street company.

Source: Unsplash

Affirm

Another FinTech firm seeking to disrupt an old, well-established credit-based industry is Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM), a leader in the emerging “buy now, pay later” method of shopping.

The company is taking on what has so far been a successful credit card model of borrowing, highlighting that industry’s high interest rates and charging fees.

Affirm believes it can offer value to consumers though its transparent pricing structure and its ability to let borrowers take control over their own finances.

However, Affirm really shines when it comes to the benefits it promises merchants and retailers. With its 7.1 million members on tap, the BNPL company offers vendors immediate access to a wellspring of customers waiting and willing to purchase on credit, customers that AFRM claims will spend upwards of 85% and more than the typical buyer.

Indeed, these funneled shoppers also give merchants a 176% higher conversion rate too, making the commission fee that vendors have to pay on these transactions well worth the money.

Affirm has been growing its retail footprint over the years, and can now claim names such as Expedia, Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) as partners. Its revenues also duly increased from $264 million in FY 2019, to $817 million for FY 2021, and its gross merchandise volume shot up at a compound annual growth rate of 78% over the same period to $8.3 billion. 

And it’s not just merchants that enjoy Affirm’s data analytics and user acquisition services either; borrowers really seem to like Affirm’s consumer offerings too, with its choice of 0% APR installment loans, a split pay option, and an interest bearing installment loan for those who are eligible.

Indeed, the company doubled its active consumer count over the last quarter, and added over 400% more active merchants to its roster. If this trend continues, there’s no reason why Affirm won’t deliver multi-bagger returns in the years to come.

DermTech

The last disruptor in our trio of high-growth tech stocks is the biomedical firm DermTech, Inc. (DMTK), a vanguard oncology pharmaceutical company that’s revolutionizing the cancer diagnostics space with its proprietary non-invasive SmartSticker solution for skin cancer detection.

DermTech’s area of expertise is centered around creating non-invasive genomic tests geared towards meeting a rising clinical demand in the medical dermatology market. While the firm creates products for use in all kinds of skin conditions, it’s in the practice of screening for melanoma that its most especially well-known.

Its SmartSticker offering has been shown to be more effective and accurate than previous techniques, and the company has seen its billable sample volume increase 62% year-on-year during the quarter on the back of this compelling success.

DermTech’s share value soared the last 12 months, rewarding early investors with a +200% price gain since the same time last year, going up from $11 in 2020 to $32 per share today.

The stock even peaked at a high of nearly $80 in February, making DMTK appear cheap right now, especially considering that the firm grew revenues by a multiple of four from 2019 through to the First Quarter 2021. 

Genomic innovations in cancer detection have made the process not just less invasive and more accurate, but also cheaper and quicker for all parties involved. With such a powerful technology beginning to make its mark on the industry, it’s not surprising that the market for such products is so huge.

Over 50 million patients in the US are at risk of skin cancer from UV-related skin damage, while 4.5 million cases of newly diagnosed basal cell and squamous cell cancers are recorded annually.

DermTech believes the skin cancer market opportunity is worth $10 billion a year – and if the company only takes a small fraction of that to begin with, the revenue expansions could be huge, spurring DMTK stock to very high valuations in a very small space of time.

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The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Financhill has a disclosure policy. This post may contain affiliate links or links from our sponsors.